The World Cup is looming on the horizon for 2026 and the early favourites are Spain, though England are somehow not far behind them.
10) Uruguay
Unconvincing since finishing third at Copa America, not helped by the retiring Luis Suarez aiming barbs at coach Marcelo Bielsa and his intense methods. “As for how the situation affected me, I don’t ignore what happened, and I know that my authority was affected in some way,” said Bielsa.
Such is the nature of CONMEBOL World Cup qualification that even with a patchy record Uruguay have made it to USA, Mexico and Canada next summer with plenty to spare, and they edge out the first two of those and Belgium to sneak into the top 10..
9) Italy
This is still an Italy side lacking a bit of star quality, as evidenced by their limp Euros exit to Switzerland. It’s hard to make a compelling case for Italy winning the World Cup beyond ‘well, it’s Italy’. And then they lost 3-0 to Norway in their opening qualifier and even ‘well, it’s Italy’ loses its power as Luciano Spalletti loses his job.
First and by absolutely no means certain task now is making sure they actually qualify this time after the mortifying failures of 2022 and 2018. And then to make it out of the group stage if they do after the mortifying failures of 2014 and 2010. It remains dizzyingly absurd yet somehow true that the last World Cup knockout game Italy played was the 2006 final.
8) Netherlands
Playing catch-up in World Cup qualifying but opened with a solid 2-0 win in Finland with Memphis Depay improbably starting up front. They are basically an orange Liverpool with Virgil van Dijk, Jeremie Frimpong, Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo in the starting XI. Which is almost certainly no bad thing.
7) Germany
“We’ve got the ambition to keep going. There’s a supercharged atmosphere in the dressing room – they want to win,” said Julian Nagelsmann after a 1-0 mauling of the Netherlands despite a whole host of first-choice players being injured. But they then lost in the Nations League semi-finals to Portugal, struggling without Jamal Musiala.
And then World Cup qualification began with a comprehensive defeat in Slovakia. They should still be fine, but in a four-team group they’ve put themselves under some uncomfortable pressure.
6) Portugal
Ronaldo will be a ludicrous 41 when the World Cup rolls around, but you absolutely know he will be there. They really should have plummeted down this list as soon as they drew 0-0 with Scotland. But beating Germany and then Spain to win the Nations League was impressive, and qualifying is up and running in fine style with Ronaldo taking his international goal tally to 140 or, more accurately, zero.
5) Argentina
They’re the World Cup holders, the Copa America holders and are so far clear at the top of South American qualifying that they’d already booked their place for next summer months agoso why are they considered less likely than England to win the 2026 World Cup? Defeat to Paraguay fuelled doubts that an ageing squad will struggle to go again in 2026.
4) England
They reached the Euro 2024 final though it’s still unclear how. Thomas Tuchel has taken over the worst of European finalists and the worst right-wing press. There has been a pretty unedifying Nations League defeat to Greece – with redemption coming in Athens – but England start every major tournament as one of the favourites, despite this particular one marking 60 years of hurt and thus the alarming fact that we are now as far away from the release of Three Lions as Three Lions was from 1966.
And they only beat Andorra 1-0. And then lost to Senegal in, end-of-season-friendly caveats notwithstanding, alarmingly ropey fashion. Then beat Andorra only 2-0 at home. Has any team ever won four qualifiers out of four without conceding a goal while looking quite so bleakly wretched?
3) Brazil
Underwhelming at Copa America, unconvincing in World Cup qualifying and it will be 24 years since they have even reached a World Cup final by the time the tournament comes around. And yet it’s Brazil, people bloody love them, and they do have a plethora of young attacking players as well as Carlo Ancelotti to lead them.
2) France
France have reached the last two World Cup finals so are always going to be short odds to reach another, especially with the continuity of Didier Deschamps. And they are in excellent form having topped their Nations League group and then finished in third place with a win over Germany thanks to Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise.
Have already made a winning start to what looks a very, very easy qualifying group.
1) Spain
The European champions, though they were somehow beaten in the Nations League final by Portugal. They’re really bloody good.
