How and when can England qualify for 2026 World Cup? Permutations as Group K reaches critical stage with Albania, Serbia chasing

It is set to be a fascinating one from an English standpoint. Not least because, for the first time, there will be 48 teams competing, with the competition changing from its original 32-team format. But also because it would be the first major tournament with head coach Thomas Tuchel at the helm.

The early signs have been positive under the former Chelsea and Bayern Munich manager; England have not conceded a single goal in their qualifying campaign, taking five wins from five, and their performances are arguably getting progressively better.

A friendly against Wales on Thursday is first up for England before their quest for World Cup qualification resumes against Latvia, in Riga, on October 14.

So how could they cement their spot in next year’s competition come the end of the October international break?

The requirements for England to secure their World Cup spot is complicated slightly by the fact that one of the chasers – Serbia – has played a game less. Thus, they have some ground they will be hoping to make up.

But England could go into their clash against Latvia knowing a win would secure World Cup qualification.

In order for that to be the case, Serbia would have to drop points against Albania when the third and second-placed sides meet in Belgrade on October 11.

Serbia have four matches remaining of their qualifying campaign, meaning a maximum of 12 points in their hunt for England’s top spot.

However, failing to pick up all three against Albania would mean that England would take an unassailable lead in the group with victory against Latvia.

Indeed, if under the assumption that England beat Latvia (which is not a given), then Serbia would also have to win their match against Andorra – Group K’s bottom side – which takes place concurrently to England’s fixture in Riga – to keep their hopes alive.

In this case, even if England win in Latvia, their qualification will not be 100% confirmed until November’s international break.

If England beat Latvia, and Serbia overcome Albania and Andorra, Tuchel’s side will be on 18 points with two matches remaining. Serbia will be five points behind on 13, and level on matches played.

That would then give extra significance to the fixture between England and Serbia on November 13 at Wembley. Avoiding defeat would ensure a trip to the U.S. for Tuchel’s side, with one qualifying match to spare.

In the event Serbia win both their October fixtures and then go on to beat England in November, it would go right down to the wire. Qualification would still be in England’s hands, but they would have to avoid defeat against Albania, with a draw likely enough in this hypothetical scenario due to their superior goal difference.

It always seems odd to talk about the third-placed team being a threat, without giving mention to those placed just behind the leaders.

Albania currently sit seven points behind England, level on five games. Thus, they have three matches remaining to make up that deficit, needing Tuchel’s side to massively slip.

As it is, should England beat Latvia, Albania will already be out of sight.

Their clash against Serbia on Saturday is most likely a huge one in the fight for the second-placed spot in Group K.

Twelve of the 16 World Cup spots allocated to European nations will be decided by group winners in this round of qualification. England are among those hoping to qualify at the first opportunity.

For those who finish second, a nervier route awaits.

The runners-up of each group, and the four best-ranked UEFA Nations League section winners who did not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group, will contest a 16-team play-off format.