Can anyone stop Paris Saint-Germain as Real Madrid drift? What the supercomputer predicts for 2025 Club World Cup ahead of knockouts

Following the conclusion of an eventful group stage, the remaining 16 teams standing in the competition are all now fully aware of what they need to do to get their hands on the trophy.

If we are honest, the tournament has been light on shocks so far, with virtually all of the big hitters still in contention, but as the field narrows, the prospect of some huge clashes increases.

Europe’s top sides remain the teams to beat, but some of the outsiders have also impressed, in particular, some of the Brazilian teams, who will always be confident of upsetting the odds.

Then you have Inter Miami, Al Hilal and Monterrey still hanging on and making sure the tournament remains a more global spectacle…for now.

With that in mind, our friends at Opta have been looking at the data to see how the tournament could shape up in the knockout rounds.

• Palmeiras V Botafogo
• Benfica in Chelsea
• Paris Saint-Germain v Inter Miami
• Flamengo V Bayern Munich
• Inter Milan V Fluminense
• Manchester City v Al Hilal
• Real Madrid in Juventus
• Borussia Dortmund in Monterrey

• Palmeiras/Botafogo V Benfica/Chelsea
• Inter/Fluminense v Man City/Al Hilal
• PSG/Inter Miami v Flamengo/Bayern Munich
• Real Madrid/Juventus in Borussia Dortmund/Monterrey

With all the interest in Lionel Messi’s reunion with PSG, few people are expecting the Argentine superstar’s MLS team-mates to upset the odds, with the newly crowned European champions backed at a whopping 83% chance of advancing to the last eight.

Internazionale, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are all also given more than a 70% chance of advancing against Fluminense, Flamengo and Monterrey, respectively, while Real Madrid and Chelsea are both given about a two in three chance of making it through their more closely contested ties.

The battle of Brazil between Palmeiras and Botafogo is the closest match to call, with the former backed to just edge past their rivals.

PSG and City are the only teams given more than a 50% chance of making the semis and that is even with the prospect of the Parisians potentially facing Bayern in the quarters and the Premier League side likely facing Inter.

For their part, this year’s losing Champions League finalists have been rated the joint-third most likely to make the final four alongside Real Madrid (40.8%).

Despite a potentially tough last-16 tie, Chelsea have been deemed to have the fourth-best chance of making the semi-finals at 45%.

Should they beat Benfica, they will face the winner of the Palmeiras and Botafogo match, thus avoiding their fellow European heavyweights.

Enzo Maresca’s side will take nothing for granted, however, with their only defeat in the competition so far coming against another Brazilian side in Flamengo.

Unsurprisingly, PSG and City are the clear favourites at this stage, with the French side narrowly ahead of their English counterparts to take the top prize.

If Opta’s numbers are correct, Luis Enrique’s side’s run to the final could see them face Inter Miami, Bayern and Real Madrid before a showdown with Guardiola’s team, who may well have come through a run of Al Hilal, Inter and Chelsea for what would be a mouth-watering finale to the competition.

Outside of those two, Inter, Bayern, Chelsea and Real are all hovering around the 10% mark to win the tournament, with Dortmund, Benfica and Juve at around 5% or lower.

Seven of the last 16 have been given less than a 1% chance of lifting the trophy.

Pre-tournament predictions

Despite a few surprise results, not much has changed in terms of likely outcomes since the start of the competition, with PSG and City jostling for the favourites’ tag and the top seven still all in contention.

The only major shock so far is the early exit of Atletico Madrid, who were eighth in the Supercomputer’s original table.

A tough possible run for Real Madrid has seen them drift to less than 10% chance of adding to their trophy haul as Inter climb slightly.

Of the outsiders, Palmeiras’ going from 0.2% chance of success to 0.9% is the biggest jump of those seven sides on less than 1%.