The Boston Celtics and the Miami
Heat renew their playoff rivalry when they meet yet again in the
playoffs. The two teams have faced each other three times (2020,
2022, 2023) over the past four postseason actions, with Miami
having the advantage overall (2-1).
This year, the Celtics come in
as the no.1 overall seed in the East while the Heat match them up
as the no.8 seed. However, coming into these playoffs, there will
be no expectations for Miami after learning their superstar Jimmy
Butler would be out for at least several weeks following his knee
injury in their play-in game against the Philadelphia
76ers.
They will be up against a
dominant Celtics team that finished the regular season with a 64-18
record and the third-highest net rating of all time at 11.8, just
behind the legendary Chicago Bulls teams led by the one and only
Michael Jordan.
The Heat have faced the Celtics
multiple times over the years and they now probably know some ways
to effectively stop them, having schemes to try and limit their
offensive executions as well as throwing some counters on offense
to have their defense off-balanced.
Without Butler, this would be an
uphill climb for Miami after what has been a roller coaster season
for them and now facing their rivals who have become overwhelming
favorites in this series.
However, there might be some
things the Heat could do to make the dominant Celtics bleed a
little for them to win some games (or even eventually win the
series). Here’s a look at those moves:
Duncan Robinson should
play more
Along with Butler, Miami is
coming into the series also without guards Terry Rozier and Josh
Richardson due to their respective injuries. Without those three,
the Heat’s guard rotation has taken a significant hit with Tyler
Herro, Delon Wright, and even forward Caleb Martin having to take a
much bigger load offensively.
Enter Duncan
Robinson.
Despite his usual suspect
defense that has him riding the bench in the playoffs, coach Erik
Spoelstra and the Heat could use his gravity as a shooter against
the Celtics. Robinson has also steadily improved his playmaking
this season, averaging a career-best 2.8 assists for the year. A
better effort defensively has also made him a passable team
defender, and he can hold his own against some players.
Gone are the days when the only
option for Robinson was dribble handoffs for his threes as he has
now shown the ability to attack off the catch and even developed
the ability to make plays out of those dribble handoffs. Robinson
is not the same player that he was before, expanding his game from
being just more than a shooter to now being a secondary or third
playmaker.
To further hide his defensive
deficiencies and lessen the possible mishaps when he’s on the
floor, Robinson can be set up to match some of the Celtics’ easiest
covers like Sam Hauser for both of their minutes. Robinson could
come in at the same time as Hauser to match him up shot for shot,
match his production from the three-point line, and try to see it
from there.
The Heat should
matchup-hunt and punish the Celtics’ average at-best
defenders
Another thing that the Heat
could do to tarnish the Celtics’ seemingly impenetrable team is to
target their average-at-best defenders Payton Pritchard, Sam
Hauser, and Luke Kornet. The Heat should hunt for Pritchard and
Hauser on switches when they’re on the floor and make them near to
unplayable. They should also ask for switches on the high pick and
roll with Kornet to leave him on an island at the top of the key.
If they do this, the Heat could create two on-the-ball advantages
that would be very useful in getting other guys open.
Miami has lineups that can
exploit these players. Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., a prolific post-up
player, could hunt Pritchard for post-ups, and then the Heat could
surround him with shooters and short-roll decision-makers. If
Boston sends two to the ball to help, it is an easy kick out to the
open man and now the Heat have a chance to hit their wide-open
looks.
If these players do end up
getting played off the floor, the Celtics’ rotation will shrink and
their top six guys will have to work as much as they can, exerting
more effort than they should and usually do, and then maybe they’ll
tire out – which could be largely beneficial for the Heat in the
long run. This is when the Heat’s depth could come in handy – when
Boston would need to rely only on their top six guys to win
games.
Jaime Jaquez would need
to be big
Despite being a rookie, Jaquez
is about to shoulder a bigger load than he should be, and even with
the daunting expectations, he should – or at least he needs to –
match them.
Will he be able to exceed
expectations and perform what’s expected of him? That remains to be
seen. But if there’s any indication from this season with the way
he played and carried himself throughout the year, this rookie
would step up to the plate.
In the final play in vs Chicago,
Jaquez had 21 points on 6 rebounds and 6 assists, leading the Heat
to the 8th seed. He scored in a variety of ways, including threes,
hard drives to the rim, post-ups, and fadeaway jumpers –
reminiscent of Butler’s game.
However, without Butler, Jaquez
would have to carry a much bigger load as he will be asked to be
one of the main threats. Last year Butler’s masterclass saved them
vs the much-favored Bucks and Celtics, but now that they don’t have
him, the Heat would need production from everyone in this series
with little to no room for errors or any mental
mistakes.
It might be too much to ask for
a rookie to handle these kinds of situations, but Jaquez should be
equipped and ready for the challenge as Miami enters this series vs
Boston.
